Speaking at the 9th Sharjah Investment Forum (SIF 2026) on 15 October 2026, Emaar Properties founder Mohamed Alabbar said property cancellations at the developer have fallen from a short-lived peak of about 1,200 a month to fewer than 600 — a historically normal level against a run-rate of roughly 4,000 units sold per month. The sales backlog stands at about Dh180 billion, and hospitality revenue is running more than 60% above previous levels.
What Alabbar said, in numbers
On the SIF 2026 main stage in Sharjah, Alabbar put forward three metrics the market usually treats as a thermometer for buyer confidence in Dubai real estate: the pace of sales, the share of cancellations, and the size of the unrecognised backlog.
- Sales pace. Emaar typically sells about 4,000 units a month with roughly 600 cancellations, Alabbar said. During a short burst of regional volatility earlier this year that figure doubled to about 1,200 a month, before returning to the historical range.
- Cancellations are back to normal. "We are still collecting exactly like before," Alabbar said, meaning collections of cash from existing contracts have not weakened. The spike, in his words, was temporary.
- Sales backlog about Dh180 billion. That is the contracted value of sales not yet recognised as revenue. For context, Emaar's reported revenue backlog as of 30 June 2026 was Dh127.7 billion (+8% YoY in H1); Alabbar's "today" figure reflects contracting momentum since that reporting date.
- Hospitality +60%. Emaar's hospitality revenue is running more than 60% above prior-period levels — a business line the developer has deliberately scaled alongside residential.
Why it matters for investors and buyers
Alabbar is historically the loudest voice on Dubai real estate sentiment: Emaar accounts for roughly 15% of the emirate's primary market and is usually first to flag a turn. Cancellations returning to a ~15% range (600 out of 4,000) after a short spike to ~30% is a story of stress being contained and payment discipline recovering — not a story about Dubai real estate ROI itself shifting.
For off-plan buyers that matters in two ways. First, developers are confident on the revenue-recognition schedule — so handover delays caused by market stress should be unlikely. Second, your own project is less exposed to neighbouring cancellations: when the share of cancelled contracts returns to normal, there is a higher chance your unit will be delivered on time with the full amenity set.
What the hospitality jump adds
Hotel assets are the "second leg" of revenue for large UAE developers — they smooth residential sales cycles. If Emaar's hospitality revenue is running more than 60% above the previous period, two things are true at once: tourist traffic to Dubai hasn't softened and premium room rates are holding. For buyers in hotel-branded residences or serviced apartments, that translates into a sturdier UAE Golden Visa 2026 investment case — the 2 million AED threshold now accommodates mortgages and off-plan.
What is routine here, and what is a signal
What is routine: cancellations spiked during a volatile stretch and then normalised. That is the standard rhythm of nervous months on any large residential market — some buyers pause, some exit, and once calm returns the deal flow re-forms. The signal: a Dh180 billion sales backlog (nearly double the H1 revenue backlog) and hospitality +60% say the second-half of 2026 is stronger than the reported figures — closed contracts and live hotel revenue run ahead of the recognised line.
What to watch next
- Handover timelines at Emaar and major peers. If payment discipline holds (cancellations ≤15%), handover slippage will be minimal — a key Q4 2026 check.
- DLD Q4 primary-market statistics. Rolling-month Dubai Land Department data on volume and average price will tell whether the primary market confirms Alabbar's thesis.
- Bank behaviour. With steady payment discipline, banks tend to keep LTVs at 65-80% on off-plan mortgages — which supports secondary-market liquidity and investor confidence.
- Hospitality ADR. Average daily rate holding above last year's is another proxy for broader confidence in Dubai's economy and global inbound travel.
For a business-owner weighing entry into UAE via residential or hospitality assets, Alabbar's take is not the only truth — but it is a useful read: a major developer is pointing to a return to normal, not an adjustment to a new "lower normal". Everything else should be checked against DLD statistics and your own case (location, developer, segment).
