Speaking at AIM Congress in Dubai, Emaar founder Mohamed Alabbar mapped the direction of the emirate's residential market for the next 12–18 months: a 'nice balance' by 2027 as a fresh supply wave arrives, an expected 5–10% price adjustment amid an extraordinary external backdrop, and a firm no-discount policy while some rivals already go up to 50%.
What Alabbar actually said
The remarks came on 7 September 2026 at AIM Congress, held at Dubai World Trade Centre — an annual global investment platform that gathers government and private-sector leaders. On housing Alabbar laid out three markers. On supply: 'A lot of supply is coming in, so I think there'll be a nice balance in the city.' On prices: 'An adjustment of five to ten per cent because it's an extraordinary situation.' And on the overall read of the moment: 'I don't look at it as a crisis… it's time to expand.'
Why the market is moving toward 'balance' in 2027
Behind Alabbar's 'balance' sits the delivery of a large cohort of projects launched in 2022–2024. Emaar alone, he said, holds about 90,000 units under development in 18 countries, roughly 50,000 of them under construction in the UAE. As part of that pipeline delivers in 2027, the demand-supply gap that has been pushing prices up over the past two to three years narrows. That is the classic late-cycle mechanism: strong growth in a supply-tight market, then new inventory arriving and pulling the market into a more sustainable equilibrium. It also typically hands negotiating power back to the buyer and dampens volatility in weighted average yields — a theme we unpack in our guide to the real returns and ROI model of Dubai real estate.
The 5–10% adjustment — and what sits behind it
Alabbar deliberately doesn't pin the adjustment on any single factor — he uses the wider framing of an 'extraordinary situation'. In market terms this bundles several things: regional geopolitical uncertainty, higher global cost of capital, and pockets of overvaluation in specific segments. Crucially, 5–10% is not a crash scenario: mature housing markets routinely swing 3–8% a year without any systemic stress. Alabbar was explicit: 'This is not a crisis, it's adjustment time.' Coming from the UAE's largest developer, that framing is a signal to the sector to keep a long horizon and avoid a panic loop.
Emaar's stance: no discounts, on cash flow and low debt
On competitors Alabbar was blunt: 'Right now, we have developers who are giving 50 per cent discount, 20 per cent discount. Our policy: we sell good product. We don't give discounts.' The stance is underwritten by financial position — publicly cited 'good cash flow' and 'low debt'. For buyers this is a fork in the road: some developers, facing a supply wave, will try to clear older inventory through aggressive discounts, while the flagship holds price and leans on brand, location and product quality. Both models have economic logic — for different buyer profiles and different horizons.
What it means for UAE buyers, investors and tenants
For long-horizon investors the message is simple: Dubai is entering a phase where the market becomes 'more normal'. Entry points will appear, but the automatic price-up-on-any-new-launch trade goes away — you'll have to underwrite the specific project, location, delivery timeline, developer quality and demand structure. For end-user buyers, a 5–10% adjustment is a chance to shape the deal better: more flexible sellers, longer delivery windows and more workable payment plans. For tenants, a 2027 delivery wave should cool upper-tier rents as some occupants trade into new stock. Reading these forks in context — not in isolation — matters, and we cover the broader macro contour in our UAE 2026 economy outlook.
Reading the signal in a sentence
Alabbar's remarks are neither bullish nor bearish — they describe a transition. From scarcity to a more balanced market. From automatic price gains to a market where you underwrite and choose. From discount panic among some rivals to a 'product and price' stance at the flagship. None of that overturns the fundamentals: Dubai remains a regionally unique market with strong capital and people inflows, a competitive tax regime and a transparent ownership infrastructure. That is why Emaar itself is signalling readiness to expand — precisely at a moment when parts of the market are thinking about discounts.
This article is editorial analysis based on public remarks at AIM Congress 2026 and open quotes carried by The National, Gulf News and Khaleej Times. It is not investment advice; specific decisions on buying UAE property require individual underwriting.
