Central Bank of the UAE Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama told a high-level IMF meeting in Bangkok on 14 October 2026 that the UAE's GDP will accelerate to roughly 10% in 2027 after a projected 1.6% in 2026. The lift comes from the rapid expansion of non-oil activities, continued infrastructure investment and higher oil production capacity after the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC.
What the CBUAE Governor said
Delivering the UAE's keynote address at the meeting of central bank governors and finance ministers from the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAP) region with the IMF, Khaled Balama laid out the headline figures. The meeting took place in the presence of IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva as part of the 2026 Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group in Bangkok.
Core claim: UAE GDP accelerating from a projected 1.6% in 2026 to approximately 10% in 2027. The Governor named three pillars:
- Non-oil economy — rapid expansion of non-oil activities, led by services, finance, logistics and tech.
- Infrastructure — a continuing investment cycle in federal and emirate-level projects.
- Oil capacity — higher production capacity after the UAE's withdrawal from OPEC.
Balama also pointed to resilience anchors: robust fiscal buffers, low public debt and substantial sovereign assets — all of which, in his wording, reinforce investor and market confidence. He added that the UAE economy has shown "exceptional resilience" against regional challenges and elevated global uncertainty.
How the number compares with the IMF
CBUAE's 10% for 2027 sits above the IMF's baseline: the October 2026 World Economic Outlook projects 7.7% for the UAE. The gap reflects different models — the Central Bank prices in the full ramp of oil capacity and non-oil expansion from in-house data, which international bodies typically pick up with a lag.
For the broader map of the UAE's 2026 diversification drivers, see our overview "UAE economy in 2026: diversification under stress test".
A second voice from the same stage
Hamed Ali, CEO of Dubai Financial Market, who was present at the same event, backed the thesis with a number: "We double the size of our economy in the UAE every ten years because we have embraced economic diversification" (quote via Khaleej Times, 15 October 2026). This echoes Balama's framing: the driver is structure, not any single sector.
What it means for business and investors
For UAE-based companies, a 10% signal implies a denser 2027 demand cycle: more corporate deals, more infrastructure contracts, broader bank lending. For professionals and expats, more regional roles anchored in the UAE, especially in finance, construction and tech, and sustained demand for Golden Visa and Green Visa routes. For investors, a reinforced case for the UAE as a long-capital jurisdiction with low public debt and sizeable sovereign reserves.
The trade leg of this pivot shows up in the UAE's systematic push on comprehensive economic partnership agreements; see our map of corridors and partners in "CEPA: how the UAE is building a trade corridor from Mumbai to Casablanca".
What is left outside the figure
Balama explicitly flagged that global risks remain elevated — regional geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures require stronger international cooperation. The UAE, in this logic, positions itself as a predictable platform: strong fiscal buffers, low debt load and deep sovereign reserves — the very ingredients that turn a 10% headline into a function of decisions already made, not a slogan.
By source
Primary source: the CBUAE press release "CBUAE Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama Delivers the UAE's Keynote Address at the MENAP Central Bank Governors and Finance Ministers Meeting with the IMF in Bangkok", issued on 14 October 2026 on centralbank.ae. Companion coverage: state news agency WAM and Khaleej Times (15 October 2026, by Alyaa Aldhanhani). International forecast referenced from the IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026.
